Updated Married at First Sight spoilers for season 2 — see the couples’ odds

The second season of A&E’s hit show Married at First Sight continues tonight as the couples work on adjusting to married life now that they’re living together.

That means there’s been a lot of progress since the last time I did a Married at First Sight spoilers post back in March. In the time since that last post, there have been quite a few significant developments both on the show and on social media. Although I can’t say for sure who will stay married and who will divorce, I thought it would be fun to share the chance of success I give each couple based on all we know…

Sean Varricchio and Davina Kullar’s chance of success: 5 percent

Sorry, Savina fans, but I just don’t think things look good for this couple. For one, the experts really dealt them a difficult card by putting Sean (who was pretty resistant to living in NYC) with Davina (who told them beforehand that she was not open to moving). Location issues aside, the sizzling chemistry Sean and Davina seemed to have on their wedding night appeared to fizzle out sometime toward the end of their honeymoon.

I also have my doubts about whether the experts’ reasoning that Sean and Davina’s similar experiences with bullying is really a strong foundation for a relationship. Beside that and the fact they are both in the medical industry, it really doesn’t seem they have much in common.

As for social media clues, the pairs can’t really come out and say anything that would give the ending away — but Davina seemed to get around that by retweeting several messages from fans that were critical of Sean.

“Don’t like the way @SVnjMAFS is treating you. He took off for Jersey like a bat out of hell. He has to learn to compromise,” she retweeted from one in April. She favorited an even harsher tweet that said, “sorry this didn’t work out for you (t’s obvious u don’t stay together), he’s a nut job. Sorry u had to go thru that -Hugs”

Beyond that, both her and Sean’s posts seem to be about what they did right, rather than how they learned or grew from the situation.

Ryan de Nino and Jessica Castro’s chance of success: 40 percent

As with Sean and Davina, Ryan and Jessica immediately had the hots for each other upon meeting at the altar. However, their relationship hit its first bump just days into the marriage when Ryan revealed his temper by storming out of dinner. Since then, they’ve continued to have a fiery dynamic… There’s definitely passion behind it, but it doesn’t seem like a particularly positive situation for either of them.

The reason I give Ryan and Jessica a slightly higher chance of success is because I think they — or, at least, she — really wants to be married. Whereas Davina and Sean’s identities are primarily linked to their careers, Jessica’s made no secret of that fact she’s always wanted to be married and wasn’t very happy when she was single.

Their social media actions also boost their chance of success. Although Jessica poked fun at Ryan for when he freaked out about ironing on the bed, she affectionately referred to him as her “hubs” in a Facebook post this week — and called then Married at First Sight experience “amazing.” On top of that, she’s pushing the #TeamDeCastro hashtag. Ryan’s also complimentary of Jessica on social media, saying this week that his beloved grandma “would have loved to meet” Jessica and by talking about their future together.

Ryan Ranellone and Jaclyn Methuen’s chance of success: 80 percent

After a lukewarm start, Jaclyn and Ryan’s relationship gradually moved from the friend zone to intimacy. Now she can’t seem to keep her hands off him — which is actually a whole new issue for the pair, based on a preview for tonight.

Still, the pair seems to have a solid foundation built on their similar priorities and willingnesses to compromise. (They really “met in the middle” by moving to an apartment between their places of work.) They also don’t seem to be making a great effort to conceal their love for each other on social media.

When was this? #MAFS #MarriedAtFirstSight maybe last night? Maybe 6 months ago? @JaclynMethuen pic.twitter.com/byLX4LmWNu

— ryan ranellone (@LIRealEstate01) May 4, 2015

Ryan also favorited all the tweets where people guessed “last night,” including the ones where some called him out by saying he and Jaclyn didn’t even know each other six months ago and that her hair is longer in the picture than during filming.

What odds do you give the couples? Find out more about their journeys by catching Married at First Sight on A&E tonight at 9/8c.